ULI, the Urban Land Institute, is a 501(c) (3) nonprofit research and education organization supported by its members.
Founded in 1936, we now have almost 40,000 members worldwide, representing the entire spectrum of land use and real estate development disciplines working in private enterprise and public service.
A multidisciplinary real estate forum, ULI facilitates an open exchange of ideas, information, and experience among industry leaders and policy makers dedicated to creating better places.
The “ULI Consensus Real Estate Forecast” is a semi-annual survey of economists and analysts at the nation’s leading real estate organizations.
The forecast findings include both near-term and longer-term projections for a wide variety of key economic and industry indicators, ranging from employment figures to housing starts to property sector performance.
The most recent survey was conducted in September, 2016 and involved 51 leading real estate economists/analysts from 37 organizations. Results were released on October 19, 2016 with a webinar and panel discussion featuring Gadi Kaufmann, Managing Director/CEO of RCLCO, Jim Clayton, Head of Investment Strategy & Analytics of Barings Real Estate Advisers, Eileen Marrinan, America’s Director of Research of Grosvenor, and Josh Scoville, Senior Managing Director of Hines.
In the October 19, 2016 survey, the median forecast for the total annual return for the NCREIF NPI was:
For Calendar Year 2016: | For Calendar Year 2017: | For Calendar Year 2018: |
---|---|---|
8.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
The income return on the NPI was 4.74% for calendar year 2016. The income component for the NPI has been relatively stable over time. Most market analysts believe the income component of the NPI will be similar in 2017 and 2018.